Why can't a black man be president of the USA? |
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America’s history of racial antagonism is long and deep. And there is no real sign that is has gone away. On the contrary, all the evidence indicates that racial considerations play a major part in voting decisions right up to the present day. |
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| Reason 1 - The Bubba Vote | |
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Throughout the first half of the 20th century, Southern states traditionally voted Democratic. The reason was that Abraham Lincoln, architect of the Civil War, was a Republican. That inter-generational grudge still shaped voting preferences 100 years later. Then it all changed when the Democrats decided that black people should have the right to vote after all. As Lyndon Johnson signed the Civil Rights bill in 1964, he is said to have expressed a fear that he was handing the South over to the Republicans for a generation. His words proved prophetic. In both 2000 and 2004, the South voted 100% Republican. |
| Reason 2 - Since 1986 Only Clinton & Carter Have Broken The Republican Stronghold | |
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The South’s shift in allegiance has shaped all of America’s modern political history. In the ten presidential elections held since 1968, seven have been won by Republicans. Only Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, both southern good ole boys, have been able to break the Republican stranglehold, and, arguably, there were special factors at play in those elections which gave the Democrats the upper hand, namely Watergate and Ross Perot. |
| Reason 3 - American Gulag | |
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But it is not only at the level of popular sentiment that racism continues to endure. Institutional racism is pervasive throughout the American apparatus of government. Blacks account for a vastly disproportionate share of America’s more than 2 million prisoners. Maybe they commit more crime? Some studies have shown whites and blacks commit drugs offences at roughly the same rate, yet blacks are five times more likely to be arrested for those offences. Even after arrest and indictment, compared to whites, blacks are more likely to be convicted when charged with the same crime, and face disproportionately severe sentences – including, of course, the death penalty. |
| Reason 4 - Legal Disenfranchisement of Blacks – One third of black men in Florida can not vote | |
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The
effect of this
incarceration mania is not isolated. It feeds into the political
process. America is rare among the countries of the world in denying
voting rights to those convicted of a crime, either at the time a
sentence is being served or, in some cases, even afterwards. As Greg
Palast demonstrated at the time of the 2000 election in Florida, these
byzantine laws were used to purge unwanted black voters - often based
only on a superficial similarity of their names - from the rolls of
eligible voters. In total, 4 million citizens are officially
disenfranchised in America, and these come disproportionately from
minority groups. In Florida, one third of black men have been stripped
of their right to vote! |
| Reason 5 - Modern Jim Crow – It’s harder for minorities to vote | |
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Apart from this overt action, there are also many subtle ways in which barriers are placed in the way of African-Americans wanting to vote. As we saw in the 2004 election, white suburban voters in Ohio could stroll into their local polling centres and vote right away, while blacks in inner cities were forced to literally queue all day in the hope of being allowed to vote. A number of US states have now introduced Voter ID measures, designed to counter the almost entirely imaginary problem of “voter fraud”. In practice, these measures require would-be voters to produce proof of identity, such as driving licences or birth certificates. Some people – particularly rural blacks – do not have the proof required. Acquiring it would cost money. In practice, then, this amounts to a recreation of the infamous “poll tax” of the Jim Crow era which barred blacks from voting based on their income level. |
| Reason 6 - Coded Racism – “White Americans”, Hillary Clinton | |
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As racism gradually became unacceptable in American public life, it simply went underground. Whites found coded ways to express it. We have already seen some of this during the presidential election campaign. In the struggle with Clinton for the Democratic nomination, remember all that talk about how Obama wasn’t connecting with “ordinary Americans”, “hard-working Americans” and, oops, as Hillary let slip one time, “white Americans”. No doubt we’ll see more of that this autumn as murmurs are heard about Obama’s lack of “experience”, his lack of patriotism and his being a secret Muslim. |
| Traditional Indicators VS Historic Racism - Which will prevail? | |
| All the traditional indicators political scientists use to predict elections - such as the state of the economy or incumbent weariness - point to a massive Obama win in November. It remains to be seen whether this wind behind his sails is enough to overcome America’s long history of racism. | |