Was The Carter Administration Taken By Surprise By The Revolution In Iran?

Most commentators had predicted a few years before the revolution that the Shah was expected to remain in power for at least another decade without any serious threats to his regime. His main politic rival Ayatollah Khomeini had been thrown out of Iraq by Saddam and was living in France. The communists in the form of the Tudeh and other political groups were infiltrated by the SAVAK and dissidents abroad were closely monitored. The Military was loyal to the Shah and most of the upper brass had been trained in America. It was believed that even if the Shah was in danger at any time or acted against the interest of the United States a coupd'etat could be staged bringing a pro American general to power. The revolution was a complete surprise to the Americans and resulted in the United States losing a very powerful ally in the Middle East.

The Shah was the American's hand picked 'puppet', which as in almost all cases, takes his encouragement from a lot of admirers, living off his popularity obvious to the everyday living conditions endured by the common people.   
   The over-the-top extremely expensive anniversary celebration of the establishment of the Persian Throne. It was the proverbial 'hair that broke the camel's back', during it's planning, it was known that the cost for the days long gathering of thousands of international guest would be in the millions of dollars. Like most of the unrest in our bolstered "friends", our foreign service & intelligent services are very slow to report actual conditions which are in contrast to the Official Line.