Who Will Win The Provincial Election In Québec According To The Most Recent Poll?

According to a poll released in the Montreal Gazette on 24 March 2007, the Liberal Party is most likely to win Québec's general election, to be held on 26 March 2007. At the same time, pollsters caution that the election is still too close to call and that even if Premier Jean Charest's Liberals do win a second term in office, they will almost certainly lose their current majority in the legislature and may have to form a minority government.

What makes this Québec election one of the most unpredictable in recent history is that it has turned into a three-way race between three parties that stand within shooting distance of each other in the polls. According to the Gazette's poll, the centrist Liberals stand at 35% support, the left-wing, separatist Parti Québécois is at 29% and the socially and fiscally conservative Action Démocratique (ADQ) enjoys 26% support. If these numbers turn out to be accurate on voting day, Québec will have re-elected a much weakened Liberal minority government. At the same time, a surprise victory on the part of the Parti Québécois is certainly not impossible, but most pollsters still see it as an unlikely scenario.

The Liberals have governed Québec since 2003.