Will Québec Separate From Canada If The Province Elects A Separatist Government?

Québec's separatists will have a very long way to go in their quest for independence, even if the province elects a Parti Québécois government in the next provincial election, which is scheduled for 26 March 2007.

A Parti Québécois victory in no way guarantees that the province will separate from Canada and this is shown by recent history. A PQ government was elected in 1976, but it failed to achieve independence after the "yes" camp lost the 1980 referendum. A PQ government again came to power in 1994, but failed to secure a victory in the 1995 referendum, albeit by a very  slim margin.

If the PQ were to govern the province once again, it is doubtful that they could win a third referendum. According to the most recent polls, only 40% of Quebecers support separation from Canada.

Additionally, it is unlikely that the Government of Canada would be willing to allow Québec to leave and there are a great many things that Ottawa could do to slow down, or render impossible Québec independence, even after a successful referendum. This includes invoking the Clarity Act, cutting off federal transfer payments to the province, threatening to territorially dismember the province, and even calling in the Canadian army to guard federal buildings and establishments.